Volvo Cars sale to Geely seen closing in Q2 10

STOCKHOLM (Reuters) – U.S. carmaker Ford (F.N) said it expected to close a deal to sell Volvo Cars to China's Zhejiang Geely in the second quarter of 2010, in the latest in a string of deals between Asian and Western carmakers.

Chinese carmakers are taking advantage of a crisis-sparked shake-up of the auto industry, tapping into Western brands in a bid to boost their technology and take advantage of a fast-growing home market. China car sales are expected to overtake the U.S. when full-year figures are published.

Ford said in a statement it did not expect to retain a stake in the Swedish unit after the sale.

Geely said in a statement that the substantive commercial terms of the agreement had been settled, and that Geely expected to sign a definitive stock purchase agreement with Ford in the first quarter of next year, paving the way for completion in the second quarter, subject to regulatory approval payday loan.

"Further discussions will focus on finalization of documentation and financing, as well as government approvals," Geely said in a statement.

Zhejiang Geely was named by Ford as preferred bidder for Volvo in October.

The estimated $1.8 billion deal would be the largest overseas acquisition by a Chinese automaker.

China's BAIC on Wednesday said it would launch an aggressive campaign to develop its brand at home and abroad after buying car designs from GM's Saab unit.

(Reporting by Jens Hansegard; Additional Writing by Helen Massy-Beresford; Editing by Hans Peters and Jon Loades-Carter)

Volvo Cars sale to Geely seen closing in Q2 ‘10

Stock futures tick up as commodities rise

NEW YORK (Reuters) – Stock index futures were higher on Monday on expectations that rising commodity prices and a downtick in the U.S. dollar would boost stocks in the energy and materials sectors.

The healthcare sector is in focus after a broad healthcare bill passed a crucial test in the U.S. Senate early on Monday, as Democrats put together enough votes to clear a key procedural hurdle in approving President Barack Obama's top legislative priority.

The dollar index (.DXY) edged 0.3 percent lower, while February crude gained nearly 1 percent to top $75 per barrel.

Investors will keep an eye on Dubai after debt-ridden conglomerate Dubai World (DBWLD.UL) did not ask creditors for a standstill on its $22 billion debt at a meeting on Monday, adding to uncertainty for investors who have been in the dark for weeks.

S&P 500 futures rose 5.8 points and were above fair value, a formula that evaluates pricing by taking into account interest rates, dividends and time to expiration on the contract. Dow Jones industrial average futures gained 38 points, and Nasdaq 100 futures added 10.5 points.

Jabil Circuit Inc (JBL.N), Walgreen Co (WAG.N) and ConAgra Foods Inc (CAG.N) are expected to report quarterly results on Monday.

General Motors (GM.UL) said Sunday it would evaluate several new expressions of interest for its Swedish Saab unit, including a fast-track bid from thwarted Dutch suitor Spyker Cars (SPYKR guaranteed online payday loans.AS).

Pfizer Inc (PFE.N), the world's biggest drugmaker, is buying the rights to a stem-cell therapy to treat inflammatory bowel disease from Athersys Inc (ATHX.O).

Terex Corp (TEX.N), the world's third biggest maker of heavy earth-moving equipment, is selling its mining business for $1.3 billion in cash to mining equipment maker Bucyrus International Inc (BUCY.O), the companies said Sunday.

French group Safran SA (SAF.PA) and General Electric Co (GE.N) won a multibillion dollar deal to provide the power plant for China's new C919 plane, Safran said Monday.

Japan's exports rose by the most in seven years on signs of a pickup in demand from China, easing fears that Japan would slip back into recession next year.

U.S. stocks rose Friday in choppy trade as quarterly results from Oracle Corp (ORCL.O) and Research In Motion Ltd(RIM.TO)(RIMM.O) lifted the Nasdaq more than 1 percent, but the U.S. dollar's climb curbed gains in both the Dow and the S&P 500.

(Editing by Jeffrey Benkoe)

Stock futures tick up as commodities rise

As Going Gets Tough, Nokia Brings Out Legal Guns

BERLIN — When Nokia, the world’s largest mobile phone maker, sued Apple, Samsung, LG and eight other competitors within six weeks beginning in October, the Finnish technology giant said it was conducting a routine defense of its intellectual property.

But for cellphone makers and suppliers accustomed to swapping valuable technologies, the suits filed by Nokia were far from standard.

Like many cellphone makers, Nokia is fighting the economic downturn. The company has laid off thousands of employees this year to counter falling sales and profit and its slipping share of the global market, which fell to 35 percent in the third quarter from 41 percent in the second.

Bill Tai, a partner in Charles River Ventures, said the new legal aggressiveness was “a natural evolution” similar to that which took place in the semiconductor and desktop computer businesses during difficult or competitive times.

“As competition has intensified and margins have deteriorated, companies are trying to put up barriers to protect their positions,” said Mr. Tai, whose firm has invested about $2 billion in technology start-ups since 1970.

The mobile industry, since its inception, has been a legal battleground. In 2008, Nokia settled a suit with Qualcomm, a U.S. maker of mobile phone chips, and agreed to pay an estimated $400 million a year for Qualcomm patents over 15 years. According to their most recent financial reports, nearly all cellphone makers are suing or being sued.

Research In Motion, the maker of the BlackBerry, is suing Motorola for using 20 of its patents; Motorola has countersued. Palm is being sued by a patent licensing company in Tyler, Texas, called Saxon Innovations over a third-party application processor. Apple in March won a ruling in Japan against Shigeru Saito Architecture Institute, which had sued over touch-screen patents.

Nokia is fighting 12 suits from IPCom, a German patent holding company that bought the mobile portfolio of Robert Bosch, which includes 160 essential mobile patents.

“Nokia has been very active of late, and in general, there has been an increase in litigation in the industry,” said Clive Thorne, an intellectual property lawyer at Arnold & Porter in London. “There is an attempt to gain technical advantage. Mobile technology is fast-moving. The commercial life of products is limited. There is urgency in ensuring that I.P. rights are protected.”

Most recently, in October, Nokia accused Apple in U.S. District Court in Delaware of violating 10 of Nokia’s third-generation wireless patents for the iPhone. Then, in the United States and Britain, Nokia accused Samsung, LG, Philips, Sharp and others of operating a cartel to keep LCD prices high.

Louise Pentland, Nokia’s chief legal officer, said the company’s legal strategy had not changed. What has, she said, is the dynamics of the mobile phone business: increasing boundary testing by industry newcomers and suppliers, in addition to convergence of the mobile Internet, information technology and other industries.

“The litigation is not the driver,” Ms. Pentland said during an interview. “It is the business environment that has changed payday loan.”

Another reason for the rise in litigiousness is the increase in the number of patents sought by mobile phone and equipment makers in their relentless quest for the cutting edge, said Ian Drew, an executive vice president at ARM, a company in Cambridge, England, that has licensed its Cortex cellphone chip designs to most of the world’s cellphone makers and suppliers.

ARM’s clients, in turn, use its designs for their own products, which they inevitably seek to protect through patents. This so-called patent differentiation, Mr. Drew said, of everything from chips to touch-screen input methods, has created a legal landscape prone to conflict.

“In the mobile phone industry, there are lots of semiconductor and handset players jockeying for position at the moment,” Mr. Drew said. “Because there are so many smaller players, it is a more dynamic business and you are going to get the odd skirmish.”

As cellphones become more like tiny computers, intellectual property will take on increasing importance to mobile equipment makers in their quest for market advantage.

In Sunnyvale, California, for example, Rosum Corp., a nine-year-old technology company that developed a method for pinpointing the physical location of mobile devices with the aid of television broadcast signals in dense urban areas, is vigorously protecting its investment.

The privately owned company has only 24 employees, but has already obtained or applied for 71 patents.

“We have taken a great deal of care to protect our technology,” said Todd Young, a vice president for business development at Rosum. “We think it is critical to our business.”

Such investments can be fraught with risk. When a company makes a patent infringement claim, it is often countersued by its opponent — as Apple countersued Nokia — which typically alleges the patents in question are no longer valid. In each suit that goes to trial, the validity of costly patents is then put to the test. And often, the costs of defense can be high and the legal victories can be pyrrhic.

In July, R.I.M., for example, agreed to pay $267.5 million to settle an infringement lawsuit with a mobile e-mail provider, Visto, ending a three-year dispute. R.I.M. told its shareholders that nearly two-thirds of the settlement — $168 million — was going to cover legal fees.

Such outcomes are one reason Nokia’s stock did not react significantly to its recent suits against Apple, Samsung and the others, said Jan Ihrfelt, an analyst in Stockholm at Swedbank, one of the largest Swedish banks. Nokia filed its suit against Apple more than two years after the iPhone went on sale, which, Mr. Ihrfelt said, suggested that the suit was a symbolic line in the sand.

“There is no expectation that Nokia will gain a financial windfall from these lawsuits,” Mr. Ihrfelt said. “I think it was more Nokia trying to send a message.”

As Going Gets Tough, Nokia Brings Out Legal Guns

Spyker Cars renews offer for GMs Saab

AMSTERDAM (Reuters) – Dutch luxury carmarker Spyker Cars NV said on Sunday it submitted a renewed offer to buy Sweden's Saab from General Motors Co. after last-ditch talks to secure a deal collapsed on Friday.

GM said on Friday it would start shutting down the loss-making firm after talks with Spyker ended. The move to abandon the 60-year-old Swedish auto brand would eliminate 3,400 jobs in Sweden and drop 1,100 Saab dealers.

But Spyker said it has submitted a renewed offer including an 11-point proposal addressing each of the issues that arose during the due diligence process.

"We have made every effort to resolve the issues that were preventing the conclusion of this matter and we have asked GM and all other involved parties to seriously consider this offer," Spyker Cars Chief Executive Victor Muller said in a statement business cards.

Spyker Cars said the new offer eliminates the need for an European Investment Bank (EIB) loan approval prior to year end, which would allow the deal to be concluded within GM's deadline.

Muller added Spyker cars was confident its offer would remove the impasse and allow it to conclude the deal prior to the expiry of the deadline originally set by GM of December 31.

The renewed offer is valid until 5 a.m. EST on Monday December 21.

(Reporting by Aaron Gray-Block; editing by John Stonestreet)

Spyker Cars renews offer for GM’s Saab

Hot News: Hynix can spend $2 billion capex in 2010

S Koreas pension fund to increase share purchase by $13.6 bln next year

SEOUL, Dec. 17 (Xinhua) — South Korea’s pension fund said Thursday it will increase its purchase of stocks to 50 trillion won (42.4 billion U.S. dollars) from the current level of 34 trillion won (28.8 billion U.S. dollars), focusing more on buying as it makes investment.

According to the Ministry for Health, Welfare and Family Affairs, the National Pension Service (NPS) convened a meeting where it decided to expand investment in the stock market by 16 trillion won, or 13.6 billion U.S. dollars, 0.02 percent of its total market cap, 873 trillion won (741 billion U.S. dollars).

With the nation’s biggest institutional investor planning to shift its sale-oriented attitude this year to a purchase-oriented stance, the market is expecting more funds available in the market, interpreting it as a good signal, local daily Maeil Economy said personal loan for poor credit.

Some analysts, however, remained cautious on the outlook, saying the fund has a chance to flow into the initial public offering (IPO) market as the market awaits listing of large-size firms, such as Samsung Life Insurance Co.

The NPS, on the other hand, said it will increase its asset management outsourcing next year by 23.2 percent to 70.3 trillion won (60 billion U.S. dollars).

Management outsourcing for domestic stocks, however, will be lowered to 50 percent from 55 percent, while 90 percent of overseas stock investments will be entrusted to outsourced managers, down from the current 100 percent, the NPS said.

S Korea’s pension fund to increase share purchase by $13.6 bln next year

Tech lifts Nasdaq, but dollar weighs on Dow, S&P

NEW YORK (Reuters) – The Nasdaq rose on Friday as quarterly results from Oracle and Research In Motion boosted optimism about a recovery in technology spending, but the U.S. dollar's rise weighed on the Dow and S&P 500 as investors pared back risky bets.

The U.S. dollar index (.DXY) climbed 0.3 percent, a move that put pressure on the broader market and weighed on shares of exporters and other multinationals. Shares of Caterpillar Inc (CAT.N) fell 0.6 percent, while Coca-Cola Co (KO.N) shed 0.7 percent. Plane maker Boeing Co (BA.N) declined 2 percent.

Geopolitical concerns supported the flight to the U.S. dollar following reports that Iranian troops had entered Iraqi territory and raised the Iranian flag at an oilfield whose ownership is disputed by Iran.

"I think we're seeing a continued flight to safety," said Tom Schrader, managing director of U.S. equity trading at Stifel Nicolaus Capital Markets in Baltimore.

"The stronger the dollar gets it means investors will be unwinding the dollar carry trade, and that's going to put upward pressure on the dollar and downward pressure on the stocks."

The Dow Jones industrial average (.DJI) gained 1.66 points, or 0.02 percent, to 10,309.92. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index (.SPX) edged up 3.32 points, or 0.30 percent, to 1,099.40. The Nasdaq Composite Index (.IXIC) jumped 21.74 points, or 1.00 percent, to 2,201.79.

The indexes opened strongly but lost ground in late morning.

Strength in the U.S. dollar forces investors who had bet on the greenback going down to cover their short dollar positions buy selling equities or other assets infra red heaters.

"A strengthening dollar … means, in my opinion, a rotation into quality," said Haag Sherman, co-founder and chief investment officer for Salient Partners, a Houston-based investment firm with $8 billion in client assets. "These companies have morphed into what the big industrials once were, which is steady growth."

Trading was choppy as Friday marks the expiration of December options and futures, a convergence known as quadruple witching that often means increased volatility as big investors adjust or exercise derivatives positions.

In addition the market was set to see the reconstitution of the S&P 500. Visa Inc (V.N), up 2.3 percent at $89, is among companies that will be the newest additions to the benchmark index after the close.

In tech news, Oracle Corp (ORCL.O) reported a bigger-than-expected increase in new software sales and BlackBerry maker Research In Motion Ltd (RIM.TO) (RIMM.O) gave a strong forecast.

Oracle shares rose 6.3 percent to $24.32, while RIM's Nasdaq-traded shares jumped 10.3 percent to $70.

Technology shares have been a strong performer in the market's run-up from early March due to the appeal of strong balance sheets and prospects for strong growth overseas.

(Editing by Kenneth Barry and Jeffrey Benkoe)

Tech lifts Nasdaq, but dollar weighs on Dow, S&P

Expansion of Nuclear Power in China Stirs Concerns

SHENZHEN, China — China is preparing to build three times as many nuclear power plants in the coming decade as the rest of the world combined, a breakneck pace with the potential to help slow global warming.

China’s civilian nuclear power industry — with 11 reactors operating and construction starting on as many as an additional 10 each year — is not known to have had a serious accident in 15 years of large-scale electricity production.

And with China already the largest emitter of gases blamed for global warming, the expansion of nuclear power would at least slow the increase in emissions.

Yet inside and outside the country, the speed of the construction program has raised safety concerns. China has asked for international help in training a force of nuclear inspectors.

The last country to carry out such a rapid nuclear expansion was the United States in the 1970s, in a binge of reactor construction that ended with the Three Mile Island accident in Pennsylvania in 1979. And China is placing many of its nuclear plants near large cities, potentially exposing tens of millions of people to radiation in the event of an accident.

In addition, China must maintain nuclear safeguards in a national business culture where quality and safety sometimes take a back seat to cost-cutting, profits and outright corruption — as shown by scandals in the food, pharmaceutical and toy industries and by the shoddy construction of schools that collapsed in the Sichuan Province earthquake last year.

“At the current stage, if we are not fully aware of the sector’s over-rapid expansions, it will threaten construction quality and operation safety of nuclear power plants,” Li Ganjie, the director of China’s National Nuclear Safety Administration, said in a speech this year.

A top-level corruption scandal is already unfolding in the nuclear industry.

In August, the Chinese government dismissed and detained the powerful president of the China National Nuclear Corporation, Kang Rixin, in a $260 million corruption case involving allegations of bid-rigging in nuclear power plant construction, according to official media reports. No charges have been reported against Mr. Kang, who is being held incommunicado for interrogation.

While none of Mr. Kang’s decisions publicly documented would have created hazardous conditions at nuclear plants, the case is a worrisome sign that nuclear executives in China may not always put safety first in their decision-making.

In contrast with its performance in industries like toys, China has a strong safety record in industries like aviation, which receive top-level government attention.

The challenge for the government and for nuclear companies as they increase construction is to keep an eye on a growing army of contractors and subcontractors who may be tempted to cut corners.

“It’s a concern, and that’s why we’re all working together because we hear about these things going on in other industries,” said William P. Poirier, a vice president for Westinghouse Electric, which is building four nuclear reactors in China.

Philippe Jamet, the director of the division of nuclear installation safety at the International Atomic Energy Agency in Vienna, said that China had welcomed foreign inspectors at its reactors and that “they show pretty good operations safety.”

But he added that the international agency was concerned about whether China would have enough nuclear inspectors with adequate training to handle the rapid expansion.

“They don’t have very much staff, when you compare their staff with how many they will need,” Mr. Jamet said. The agency accepted a Chinese request to send a team of international experts to the country next year to assess staffing and training, he added.

In late October, Prime Minister Wen Jiabao ordered a quintupling of the safety agency’s staff by the end of next year, to 1,000, according to United States regulators auto loans for bad credit. Chinese officials did not respond to requests for confirmation.

China has two rival state-owned nuclear power giants: the China National Nuclear Corporation, mainly in northeastern China, and the China Guangdong Nuclear Power Group, mainly in southeastern China.

Western experts regard the Daya Bay nuclear power plant in Shenzhen, which mainly uses French designs and is run by China Guangdong Nuclear, as evidence that China can run reactors safely. A display case holds trophies the power plant won in global safety competitions.

China National Nuclear likewise cooperates with international inspectors and has had no reported mishaps. But its roots are in a government ministry with close ties to the former Soviet Union, making it more of an enigma to most Western experts, and the corruption case has added to their concern. China National Nuclear was on track to grow faster than China Guangdong over the next decade.

China National Nuclear has sought to hush up the case involving the arrest of its president, deleting from its Chinese-language Web site even the most minor news releases that mentioned Mr. Kang. In a faxed response to questions, China National Nuclear made no mention of Mr. Kang, but emphasized that its plants met international standards.

The arrest of Mr. Kang, a member of the Chinese Communist Party’s powerful Central Committee, can be seen as evidence of China’s seriousness about safety.

Today, China’s nuclear plants can produce about nine gigawatts of power when operating at full capacity, supplying about 2.7 percent of the country’s electricity. Three years ago, the government set a goal of increasing that capacity more than fourfold by 2020.

The government will soon announce a further increase in its targets, to 70 gigawatts of capacity by 2020 and 400 gigawatts by 2050, said Jiang Kejun, an energy policy director at the National Development and Reform Commission, the main planning agency.

Electrical demand is growing so rapidly in China that even if the industry manages to meet the ambitious 2020 target, nuclear stations will still generate only 9.7 percent of the country’s power, by the government’s projections.

Bringing so much nuclear power online over the next decade would reduce the country’s energy-related emissions of global warming gases by about 5 percent, compared with the emissions that would be produced by burning coal to generate the power.

“For anyone concerned about carbon dioxide emissions, it’s heartening, but it’s only a piece of the puzzle,” said Jonathan Sinton, a China specialist at the International Energy Agency in Paris.

China, which by most estimates overtook the United States in 2006 to become the largest emitter of greenhouse gases, is seeking sharp improvements in the energy efficiency of its economy.

But the economy is growing so fast that even if the country can meet its goals, total emissions will rise 72 to 88 percent by 2020, Mr. Sinton said.

The challenge for China is to build and operate its nuclear reactors without the equivalent of the Three Mile Island accident, in which a reactor core partly melted and released radioactivity, or the Chernobyl disaster in the former Soviet Union in 1986, the world’s worst civilian nuclear accident.

China does not use the kind of reactor that exploded at Chernobyl. And engineers in China study the mistakes that poorly trained operators made at Three Mile Island.

Liu Yanhua, a vice minister of science and technology, said China believed that its nuclear industry would continue to grow safely.

“So far,” Mr. Liu said, “there is no damage.”

Expansion of Nuclear Power in China Stirs Concerns

Shares Get a Little Lift From Dubai Bailout

Easing concerns about global credit problems and corporate deal making gave stocks a lift on Monday.

Shares rose after Abu Dhabi extended $10 billion to Dubai to help the debt-strapped Middle Eastern city-state stay afloat.

The deal, which also sent markets in Europe higher, helped ease fears that the emirate of Dubai would default on its debt and usher in a new round of global credit problems.

In addition, the Exxon Mobil Corporation said that it would acquire XTO Energy, a natural gas producer, for $31 billion in stock. The deal is part of Exxon’s move to acquire valuable natural gas fields.

Separately, Citigroup said it would pay back$20 billion in bailout money it received as part of the government’s Troubled Asset Relief Program. The government will also sell its 34 percent stake in the company.

Last week, Bank of America Corporation repaid the entire $45 billion it owed taxpayers as part of TARP.

The Dow Jones industrial average ended the day 29.55 points or 0.28 percent, higher, at 10,501.05. The Standard & Poor’s 500-stock index rose 7.70 points or 0.7 percent, at 1,114.11, while the Nasdaq was up 21.79 points or 0.99 percent at 2,212.10.

Encouraging news about how consumers feel about the economy and their spending habits sent stocks higher on Friday. Strong retail-sales data from the government helped lift investor confidence.

Financial stocks will probably be under pressure Monday despite the move by Citigroup, as President Obama meets with executives of some of the nation’s biggest lenders.

Mr. Obama is asking bank executives to support his efforts to tighten the financial industry, but the meeting was shaping up to be a tense encounter after the president’s description of bankers as “fat cats” in a “60 Minutes” interview broadcast Sunday.

Meanwhile, bond prices were mixed. The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note, which moves opposite its price, was unchanged from 3.55 percent late Friday. The yield on the three-month T-bill, considered one of the safest investments, rose to 0.03 percent from 0.01 percent.

The dollar mostly fell against other major currencies, while gold prices rose low rates payday advance.

Oil prices fell for a ninth consecutive day, declining 36 cents to settle at $69.51 on persistent concerns about high inventories and weak demand.

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In Europe, the FTSE 100 index in London settled up 53.77 points, or 1 percent, while the DAX in Frankfurt rose 45.97 points, or 0.80 percent. The CAC-40 in Paris was 26.72 points, or 0.70 percent, higher.

Earlier in Asia, most stock markets rose with the notable exception of Japan’s Nikkei, which closed down 2.19 points at 10,105.68 as investor optimism was weighed down by a fairly sluggish Tankan business confidence survey — it showed only a modest fourth quarter improvement and a continued reluctance by firms to ramp up their investments.

However, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng rose 183.64 points, or 0.8 percent, to 22,085.75 and South Korea’s Kospi added 7.87 points, or 0.5 percent, to 1,664.77.

Underpinning the gains too has been solid American economic data over recent weeks, including last Friday’s retail sales data for November, which helped reinforce hopes that the world’s largest economy was recovering solidly from recession. In conjunction with recent jobs data, analysts said the outlook for the United States economy has markedly improved, but that could mean that the Federal Reserve brings forward its plan to withdraw extraordinary policy measures put in place to avert a total economic collapse.

As a result, investors will be carefully monitoring the Fed’s final interest rate meeting of the year this Wednesday even more closely than normal to see if the accompanying statement is slightly more hawkish than before.

Neil Mackinnon, global strategist at VTB Capital, said there was a risk that the Fed could alter the language in its statement and remove the reference to interest rates being low “for an extended period” — code for keeping interest rates at the current level of near zero percent for a while yet.

Shares Get a Little Lift From Dubai Bailout

Hot News: Bond Report: Long-term Treasurys up, with eyes on Fed

D-Day nears for Dubais $3.5 billion debt hurdle

DUBAI (Reuters) – Heavy rain pounded Dubai on Sunday adding to the gloom of the emirate's debt woes a day before the deadline of the $3.52 billion bond by state-owned developer Nakheel, with no word on how it will be handled.

Dubai's stock market did soar for a second consecutive session on Sunday as traders reacted to a surge in Nakheel's bond price last week on mounting speculation it will repay.

The Islamic bonds, or sukuk, had been trading around 110 cents to the dollar before the government shocked investors on November 25 with a request for a six-month standstill on the debt of state-linked Dubai World.

The announcement sent the sukuk down to mid-40 lows, but closed on Friday at about 54 cents to the dollar.

Fund managers and bankers regard Monday's outcome as the litmus test for Dubai World's planned $26 billion restructuring and Dubai as a whole for resolving its debt burden.

But the odds of Nakheel, the developer of palm-shaped islands, repaying are low.

"It's very hopeful people (speculating)," says a Dubai-based fund manager. "It seems very strange that if Dubai World intended to pay they would have gone through the last two weeks of pain."

A sudden u-turn and repayment would placate disappointed and confused investors in the immediate term. Dubai's handling of the situation has tarnished its reputation.

Dubai's finance chief on Thursday tried to reassure investors saying its actions were more important than its public image. But, Dubai World has few options.

"The key thing is the lack of clarity," said Nish Popat, ING's head of fixed income in the Middle East. "What's needed more than anything else is some sort of information to understand what the plans are going forward and how they are progressing."

Reflecting rising repayment hopes, five-year credit default swaps for Dubai fell more than 30 basis points on Friday to 533 basis points, according to CDS monitor CMA DataVision, compared with a peak of almost 700 bps at the end of November.

The level is still high given the CDS was quoted at about 300 bps before the November 25 announcement.

"The CDS spreads are better, and news of a hedge fund buying into Nakheel – this is all positive … even if you buy Nakheel at 50, and they pay out 70, you're still making good money," said a banker from a Dubai government-controlled lender.

If Nakheel does not pay on Monday, it would technically be in default, but it would still give its restructuring team a two-week grace period to reach an agreement with creditors.

December 28 is the final cut off point. After that a cross default clause in its original prospectus will be triggered that covers Nakheel and its guarantor Dubai World, adding to the overall debt burden fast pay day loans.

Regional markets have been struggling for weeks under the issue.

"Prices are so distorted right now," said Haissam Arabi chief executive at Gulfmena Alternative Investments. "Tomorrow is a big day, until we get some clarity (about Dubai's debt) there will be no real trend. The main catalyst we are waiting for is Nakheel news."

STRIKING A DEAL

Analysts have speculated Nakheel could repay its bond at 70 cents to a dollar and issue new debt for the remainder.

"Such an outcome would be beneficial for both parties involved," EFG Hermes analyst Fahd Iqbal wrote in a research report. "Creditors would receive a portion of their money back with a promise for the remainder to be delivered at a later stage while Dubai World, along with other government related parties, would have continued access to capital markets."

With time running out for a deal on Nakheel's bond, bondholders may have to accept some impairment, leaving Dubai World free to negotiate with longer-term debt holders.

But vociferous minority holders of Nakheel's bond are still demanding repayment, which could lead to potentially damage larger claims.

The third option is for Dubai World to outline details of its restructuring plans and announce a standstill agreement with its creditors. This would make Nakheel's bond date irrelevant in the grand scheme of things and buy valuable time for Dubai.

"It would bring confidence if there is a settlement of good faith or they restructure or they pay, but the rest will linger as there is debt outstanding to corporates, contractors and all kinds of creditors," said John Sfakianakis, chief economist at Banque Saudi Fransi-Credit Agricole Group in Riyadh.

Dubai's government and affiliated firms owe non-financial Japanese companies roughly $7.5 billion in credit that had not been collected as of October 31, a study by Japan's government showed.

In addition, fears that Dubai's debt problems are not limited to the state-linked firm has already battered investor confidence. In February, Borse Dubai has $2.5 billion of debt maturing, while Dubai ruler's own firm Dubai Holding will face almost $1.9 billion of debt repayments in the first half of 2010.

"There is no precedent for such a situation in the region – tomorrow is D-Day," said one banker.

(Reporting by John Irish; additional reporting by Rachna Uppal and Nicolas Parasie; editing by Inal Ersan and Simon Jessop)

D-Day nears for Dubai’s $3.5 billion debt hurdle

U.N. Experts Get Threats in Inquiry Into Somalia

NAIROBI, Kenya — United Nations experts investigating whether Somali businessmen are funneling aid money to terrorist groups have recently received death threats warning them to stop their work, according to United Nations officials.

A United Nations Security Council committee issued a statement on Friday in response to the threats, saying that it “deplores such acts of intimidation and interference.”

Millions of dollars are at stake, and many analysts say they believe that the Somali businessmen are desperate to derail the United Nations investigation because they fear they could lose lucrative contracts to transport food in Somalia, a war-ravaged country where foreign aid is one of the biggest businesses, along with piracy.

According to officials close to the investigation, several Somali businessmen, who have been working for years with the United Nations World Food Program to deliver emergency rations, may be diverting money to terrorist groups that are trying to bring down Somalia’s weak transitional government and possibly wage attacks on Western targets in Kenya. Concerns about these same Somali businessmen recently led the American government to delay food shipments to Somalia at a time when millions of Somalis are a few meals away from starvation.

A team of five experts hired by the United Nations Security Council has been intensely scrutinizing the businessmen over the past several months as part of a process to monitor the arms embargo against Somalia, in place since 1992, and issues connected to Somalia’s security and the delivery of aid. Preliminary results from the investigations, provided to The New York Times, indicate that several of the Somali contractors working for the World Food Program could face economic sanctions, including asset freezes, travel bans and the cancellation of multimillion-dollar contracts.

A week ago, one of the experts who lives in Nairobi received a strange text message on his cellphone, written in broken English, that said: “Pliz friend of me come jacaranda hotel 9 oclok no teletrack payday loans. nice imformationz of. good rafiki.”

(Rafiki is a Kiswahili word, commonly used in Kenya, that means friend.)

Twenty-six minutes later, the expert, who said he could not be identified because of the death threats, got a second text message, written in similarly bad English, saying: “Me i am nice friend to you. pliz do not go there to jacaranda hotel at 7 oclok. My friends to shoot you.”

The message identifies the expert’s car and where he lives. It ends: “kenya robber was give $3000 for shoots. look for corola white car.”

The two messages were sent from different phone numbers but the expert believes they were sent by the same person because of similarities like the spelling of “pliz” to mean please. The expert called them “quite a creative way to deliver a death threat.”

On Saturday, Matt Bryden, the coordinator of the five-member monitoring group, said, “We have received a variety of threats and pressures to influence our investigation, some of which have been very detailed and specific.”

Several members of the group are now protected around the clock and drive to work with Kenyan police officers.

Somali businessmen have been operating in a lawless, chaotic, anything-goes environment for the past 18 years, since Somalia’s central government collapsed. It is all too common for business feuds to turn into gun battles and for extortion and the mysterious, sudden death of business rivals to go unpunished.

But many analysts were surprised by the possibility that Somali businessmen would be bold enough to explicitly threaten a United Nations team in neighboring Kenya.

U.N. Experts Get Threats in Inquiry Into Somalia

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